Commercial refinance lending and commercial real estate is headed for a bailout, possibly a “TARP 2.0”. There is crisis building in the commercial Real Estate market and commercial mortgage refinance. First, a very small market exists to refinance commercial loans. Secondly, the underwriting standards have tightened. Finally, the Obama policies are scaring away investors.
With around $1 trillion coming due in the next four years, there will be plenty of borrowers won’t be able to refinance. With all these loans coming due, we are headed for another government bailout.
A bailout only hurts commercial real estate as it devalues the dollar. China and other big foreign investors are only going to shy away from the market if they feel the dollar will further devalue. In addition, capital from American companies is going to flow oversees as they want to buy assets valued in non-dollar currencies.
Now is the time for property owners and banks to execute a plan for commercial loan workout to resolve current loans coming due. The issue for most property owners is not the ability to make the payments rather it is the ability to refinance with the current lender, another lender.
During the looming trillion dollar financial crisis, refinance commercial property will become more difficult if not impossible. During and after a meltdown all the rules change and bank become afraid to lend.
Best thing to do is to refinance commercial property or get a commercial loan review and restructure your loan ahead of the pending storm. Lower your rate, extend the term or get interest only payments (very attractive to commercial banks) If you get in line behind the other trillion dollars of commercial loans coming due conduits may be gone and a commercial mortgage backed securities may be all but shut down completely.